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2.4 million Floridians have some college credit but no diploma. What would happen if they completed their degrees?

 
A.J. Russo has returned to St. Petersburg College to earn a bachelor's degree in business administration. He takes all his classes online using his laptop so he can do his coursework anywhere.  LANCE ROTHSTEIN   |  Special to The Times
A.J. Russo has returned to St. Petersburg College to earn a bachelor's degree in business administration. He takes all his classes online using his laptop so he can do his coursework anywhere. LANCE ROTHSTEIN | Special to The Times
Published July 27, 2018

More than 30 million Americans left college in the past two decades without a degree. They gained credits but no credential. Many are just a few courses from finishing.

A collective failure? Think of it as a tremendous economic opportunity.

These "near-completers" have been called untapped fiscal super fuel, an easily identified resource that can help ensure the economy remains vibrant and nimble.

By some estimates, nudging this cohort over the educational finish line could boost the nation's annual incomes by more than $110 billion.

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The group is massive, which may explain some of the breathlessness around its economic potential. In Florida, more than 1.3 million people between the ages of 25 and 55 have some college experience but no associate's degree, according to the U.S. Census Bureau's Current Population Survey. Add in anyone over 55 and the number swells to nearly 2.4 million, or more than 11 percent of the state's population.

To remain competitive, we'll need more people with college degrees and high-level certifications. Better-paying jobs will continue to demand more sophisticated skills, whether in manufacturing, financial services or the trades.

Research shows that college grads earn more than people with less education. They enjoy lower unemployment rates and more cushioning during economic downturns. Jobs that require a college degree are far less likely to be lost to automation, concluded a recent McKinsey Global Institute report.

"We all know that the jobs of tomorrow are going to require more than a high school diploma," said Patrick Rinard, associate vice president of enrollment services at St. Petersburg College. "So encouraging people to finish that valued post-secondary credential is only going to help fuel the economy."

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Even now, employers lament that they can't find workers with the training and credentials for the jobs they have available. That mismatch is a drag on the economy and can be a lost financial opportunity for individuals. Encouraging near-completers to earn their degrees or a high-level certification could help fill that gap.

Tampa resident A.J. Russo attended St. Petersburg College's funeral services program about 15 years ago, but left midway. As his role at the Adams & Jennings Funeral Home in Seminole Heights expanded, he felt he needed more training, particularly in finance and budgeting. He's now back at SPC, this time working toward a bachelor's degree in business administration.

"Today, jobs keep requiring a higher skill level. You can see it everywhere," said Russo, 52. "This gives me more job security, more knowledge. If you don't keep up, I feel you are going to be out of luck."

The point isn't to get everyone to return to school. Some near-completers can sharpen their skills with on-the-job training. The biggest impact will come from finding the former students with the most to benefit from finishing a degree, including the ones stuck in lower-paying jobs because they don't have the credentials to move up.

Colleges across the country are reaching these former students with targeted marketing campaigns. The pitch often includes the promise of one-on-one counseling to make reupping less daunting.

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The Complete Florida program, for instance, offers would-be students a personal coach to help figure out how many credits they have and whether their work experience can be applied toward a degree. The idea is to help returning students earn degrees as quickly and affordably as possible, whether they want to attend full time or part time.

Many near-completers are juggling work and family obligations. Attracting them back to school often requires a suite of online and night classes, and intensive and accelerated programs that allow them to finish credits in weeks instead of months.

One continuing hurdle: Financial aid, which is mostly aimed at traditional students, those right out of high school. It would help if more aid was available for older students to finish their college degrees or for workers who want to pursue shorter-term certificate programs linked to higher-paying jobs, like computer coding, property appraising or electrical work.

Of course, returning to school won't help much if the sparkling new degrees and certifications don't lead to better jobs, or help them hang onto the ones they already have. The graduates must fill a need. For that reason, community outreach must be a priority, said SPC's Rinard.

"When we get students to come back and finish, they should be better off economically than when they started," he said. "To ensure that, we figure out what local employers need now and what they think they will need in the future. It's all about staying ahead of the curve."

The limited research on near-completers suggests that most of them can accrue many of the benefits from completing degrees or certifications. Younger workers who return to school tend to benefit more, mostly because they have more years left in the workforce to make up the cost of tuition and lost wages. There's also some evidence that African-Americans who return to complete their degrees enjoy a higher increase in pay than their white counterparts.

Another benefit for communities: Near-completers who earn a degree appear less likely to bolt for another state. They stick around, benefiting the local economy.

As Rinard said: "If we get it right, the government wins, industry wins and the individual wins."

Hard to argue with that.

Contact Graham Brink at gbrink@tampabay.com. Follow @GrahamBrink.